SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 38.84%. A win for Real Madrid had a probability of 35.5% and a draw had a probability of 25.7%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.17%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.51%) and 2-0 (6.41%). The likeliest Real Madrid win was 0-1 (8.69%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.16%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Atletico Madrid would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Atletico Madrid | Draw | Real Madrid |
38.84% ( 0.71) | 25.66% ( 0.18) | 35.5% ( -0.89) |
| Both teams to score 55.31% ( -0.7) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 51.24% ( -0.86) | 48.75% ( 0.86) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 29.14% ( -0.79) | 70.86% ( 0.78) |
| Atletico Madrid Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.31% ( -0.01) | 24.69% ( 0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 40.77% ( -0.01) | 59.22% ( 0.01) |
| Real Madrid Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.45% ( -0.92) | 26.55% ( 0.92) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 38.24% ( -1.23) | 61.76% ( 1.23) |
| Score Analysis |
| Atletico Madrid | Draw | Real Madrid |
| 1-0 @ 9.17% ( 0.32) 2-1 @ 8.51% ( 0.08)2-0 @ 6.41% ( 0.22)3-1 @ 3.97% ( 0.04)3-0 @ 2.99% ( 0.1)3-2 @ 2.63% ( -0.05)4-1 @ 1.39% ( 0.01)4-0 @ 1.05% ( 0.04)4-2 @ 0.92% ( -0.02)Other @ 1.81% Total : 38.84% | 1-1 @ 12.16% ( 0.11) 0-0 @ 6.56% ( 0.23)2-2 @ 5.64% ( -0.1)3-3 @ 1.16% ( -0.05)Other @ 0.15% Total : 25.66% | 0-1 @ 8.69% ( 0.08) 1-2 @ 8.06% ( -0.14)0-2 @ 5.76% ( -0.1)1-3 @ 3.56% ( -0.16)0-3 @ 2.55% ( -0.11)2-3 @ 2.49% ( -0.11)1-4 @ 1.18% ( -0.09)Other @ 3.19% Total : 35.5% |
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