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DL
Championship | Gameweek 39
Apr 2, 2021 at 3pm UK
Pride Park Stadium
LT

Derby
2 - 0
Luton

Gregory (7'), Shinnie (49' pen.)
Wisdom (47'), Sibley (51'), Byrne (66'), Kazim-Richards (90+5')
FT(HT: 1-0)

Dewsbury-Hall (66'), Pearson (81')

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 36.5%. A win for Luton Town had a probability of 33.6% and a draw had a probability of 29.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.16%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.29%) and 2-0 (7.12%). The likeliest Luton Town win was 0-1 (12.47%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.48%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Derby County would win this match.

Result
Derby CountyDrawLuton Town
36.5%29.89%33.6%
Both teams to score 42.35%
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
35.18%64.82%
Over 3.5Under 3.5
16.24%83.76%
Derby County Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
66.07%33.93%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
29.4%70.6%
Luton Town Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
64.1%35.9%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
27.32%72.68%
Score Analysis
    Derby County 36.5%
    Luton Town 33.6%
    Draw 29.88%
Derby CountyDrawLuton Town
1-0 @ 13.16%
2-1 @ 7.29%
2-0 @ 7.12%
3-1 @ 2.63%
3-0 @ 2.56%
3-2 @ 1.35%
Other @ 2.4%
Total : 36.5%
1-1 @ 13.48%
0-0 @ 12.17%
2-2 @ 3.73%
Other @ 0.49%
Total : 29.88%
0-1 @ 12.47%
1-2 @ 6.91%
0-2 @ 6.39%
1-3 @ 2.36%
0-3 @ 2.18%
2-3 @ 1.28%
Other @ 2.01%
Total : 33.6%

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