Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 36.5%. A win for Luton Town had a probability of 33.6% and a draw had a probability of 29.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.16%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.29%) and 2-0 (7.12%). The likeliest Luton Town win was 0-1 (12.47%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.48%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Derby County would win this match.

Result
Derby County	Draw	Luton Town
36.5%	29.89%	33.6%

Both teams to score 42.35%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

35.18%

64.82%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

16.24%

83.76%

Derby County Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

66.07%

33.93%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

29.4%

70.6%

Luton Town Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

64.1%

35.9%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

27.32%

72.68%

Score Analysis

Derby County 36.5%

Luton Town 33.6%

Draw 29.88%

Derby County	Draw	Luton Town
1-0 @ 13.16% 2-1 @ 7.29% 2-0 @ 7.12% 3-1 @ 2.63% 3-0 @ 2.56% 3-2 @ 1.35% Other @ 2.4% Total : 36.5%	1-1 @ 13.48% 0-0 @ 12.17% 2-2 @ 3.73% Other @ 0.49% Total : 29.88%	0-1 @ 12.47% 1-2 @ 6.91% 0-2 @ 6.39% 1-3 @ 2.36% 0-3 @ 2.18% 2-3 @ 1.28% Other @ 2.01% Total : 33.6%