Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cardiff City win with a probability of 43.21%. A win for Derby County had a probability of 29.23% and a draw had a probability of 27.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Cardiff City win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.47%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.58%) and 2-0 (8.27%). The likeliest Derby County win was 0-1 (9.77%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.94%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 1.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Cardiff City would win this match.

Result
Cardiff City	Draw	Derby County
43.21%	27.55%	29.23%

Both teams to score 47.41%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

42.05%

57.95%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

21.35%

78.65%

Cardiff City Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

73.42%

26.58%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

38.2%

61.79%

Derby County Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

64.57%

35.43%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

27.81%

72.19%

Score Analysis

Cardiff City 43.2%

Derby County 29.23%

Draw 27.55%

Cardiff City	Draw	Derby County
1-0 @ 12.47% 2-1 @ 8.58% 2-0 @ 8.27% 3-1 @ 3.79% 3-0 @ 3.65% 3-2 @ 1.97% 4-1 @ 1.26% 4-0 @ 1.21% Other @ 2.02% Total : 43.2%	1-1 @ 12.94% 0-0 @ 9.42% 2-2 @ 4.45% Other @ 0.74% Total : 27.55%	0-1 @ 9.77% 1-2 @ 6.72% 0-2 @ 5.07% 1-3 @ 2.32% 0-3 @ 1.75% 2-3 @ 1.54% Other @ 2.05% Total : 29.23%