Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Stoke City win with a probability of 40.15%. A win for Derby County had a probability of 30.74% and a draw had a probability of 29.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Stoke City win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.35%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.91%) and 2-1 (7.89%). The likeliest Derby County win was 0-1 (11.25%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.33%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 13.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Stoke City in this match.

Result
Stoke City	Draw	Derby County
40.15%	29.1%	30.74%

Both teams to score 43.82%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

37.25%

62.75%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

17.72%

82.28%

Stoke City Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

69.41%

30.59%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

33.17%

66.83%

Derby County Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

63.13%

36.87%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

26.34%

73.65%

Score Analysis

Stoke City 40.14%

Derby County 30.74%

Draw 29.1%

Stoke City	Draw	Derby County
1-0 @ 13.35% 2-0 @ 7.91% 2-1 @ 7.89% 3-0 @ 3.12% 3-1 @ 3.12% 3-2 @ 1.56% 4-0 @ 0.93% 4-1 @ 0.92% Other @ 1.35% Total : 40.14%	1-1 @ 13.33% 0-0 @ 11.27% 2-2 @ 3.94% Other @ 0.56% Total : 29.1%	0-1 @ 11.25% 1-2 @ 6.65% 0-2 @ 5.62% 1-3 @ 2.21% 0-3 @ 1.87% 2-3 @ 1.31% Other @ 1.83% Total : 30.74%