Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Watford win with a probability of 35.95%. A win for Derby County had a probability of 35.09% and a draw had a probability of 29%.
The most likely scoreline for a Watford win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.49%) and 0-2 (6.79%). The likeliest Derby County win was 1-0 (11.95%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.37%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 12.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Watford in this match.
