Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Middlesbrough win with a probability of 42.78%. A win for Derby County had a probability of 30.02% and a draw had a probability of 27.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Middlesbrough win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.64%) and 2-0 (8.01%). The likeliest Derby County win was 0-1 (9.57%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.85%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 3.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Middlesbrough would win this match.
