SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Norwich City win with a probability of 60.52%. A draw had a probability of 21.3% and a win for Plymouth Argyle had a probability of 18.22%.
The most likely scoreline for a Norwich City win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.04%) and 2-1 (9.96%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.01%), while for a Plymouth Argyle win it was 0-1 (5.04%). The actual scoreline of 6-1 was predicted with a 0.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Norwich City would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Norwich City | Draw | Plymouth Argyle |
60.52% ( 0.05) | 21.26% ( 0.11) | 18.22% ( -0.15) |
| Both teams to score 54.27% ( -0.67) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 57.2% ( -0.75) | 42.8% ( 0.75) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 34.8% ( -0.75) | 65.2% ( 0.75) |
| Norwich City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 86.29% ( -0.23) | 13.7% ( 0.23) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 59.06% ( -0.45) | 40.94% ( 0.45) |
| Plymouth Argyle Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 62.88% ( -0.61) | 37.11% ( 0.61) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 26.1% ( -0.61) | 73.9% ( 0.61) |
| Score Analysis |
| Norwich City | Draw | Plymouth Argyle |
| 1-0 @ 10.1% ( 0.24) 2-0 @ 10.04% ( 0.16)2-1 @ 9.96% 3-0 @ 6.66% ( 0.06)3-1 @ 6.6% ( -0.06)4-0 @ 3.31% 4-1 @ 3.28% ( -0.06)3-2 @ 3.27% ( -0.08)4-2 @ 1.62% ( -0.06)5-0 @ 1.31% ( -0.01)5-1 @ 1.3% ( -0.03)Other @ 3.06% Total : 60.5% | 1-1 @ 10.01% ( 0.07) 0-0 @ 5.09% ( 0.17)2-2 @ 4.93% ( -0.08)3-3 @ 1.08% ( -0.05)Other @ 0.14% Total : 21.25% | 0-1 @ 5.04% ( 0.08) 1-2 @ 4.97% ( -0.04)0-2 @ 2.5% 1-3 @ 1.64% ( -0.04)2-3 @ 1.63% ( -0.06)Other @ 2.45% Total : 18.22% |
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