Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Swansea City win with a probability of 43.03%. A win for Derby County had a probability of 29.43% and a draw had a probability of 27.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Swansea City win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.39%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.57%) and 2-0 (8.21%). The likeliest Derby County win was 0-1 (9.77%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.94%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Swansea City would win this match.

Result
Swansea City	Draw	Derby County
43.03%	27.53%	29.43%

Both teams to score 47.58%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

42.22%

57.77%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

21.49%

78.51%

Swansea City Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

73.41%

26.59%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

38.19%

61.81%

Derby County Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

64.82%

35.18%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

28.07%

71.93%

Score Analysis

Swansea City 43.03%

Derby County 29.43%

Draw 27.53%

Swansea City	Draw	Derby County
1-0 @ 12.39% 2-1 @ 8.57% 2-0 @ 8.21% 3-1 @ 3.79% 3-0 @ 3.62% 3-2 @ 1.98% 4-1 @ 1.25% 4-0 @ 1.2% Other @ 2.02% Total : 43.03%	1-1 @ 12.94% 0-0 @ 9.35% 2-2 @ 4.48% Other @ 0.75% Total : 27.53%	0-1 @ 9.77% 1-2 @ 6.76% 0-2 @ 5.11% 1-3 @ 2.36% 0-3 @ 1.78% 2-3 @ 1.56% Other @ 2.1% Total : 29.43%