Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Swansea City win with a probability of 45.65%. A draw had a probability of 27.5% and a win for Derby County had a probability of 26.81%.

The most likely scoreline for a Swansea City win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.27%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.99%) and 1-2 (8.7%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.85%), while for a Derby County win it was 1-0 (9.49%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 4.6% likelihood.

Result
Derby County	Draw	Swansea City
26.81%	27.54%	45.65%

Both teams to score 46.02%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

41%

59%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

20.53%

79.47%

Derby County Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

62.04%

37.96%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

25.27%

74.73%

Swansea City Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

74.18%

25.82%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

39.22%

60.78%

Score Analysis

Derby County 26.81%

Swansea City 45.65%

Draw 27.53%

Derby County	Draw	Swansea City
1-0 @ 9.49% 2-1 @ 6.23% 2-0 @ 4.6% 3-1 @ 2.01% 3-0 @ 1.48% 3-2 @ 1.36% Other @ 1.64% Total : 26.81%	1-1 @ 12.85% 0-0 @ 9.8% 2-2 @ 4.22% Other @ 0.67% Total : 27.53%	0-1 @ 13.27% 0-2 @ 8.99% 1-2 @ 8.7% 0-3 @ 4.06% 1-3 @ 3.93% 2-3 @ 1.9% 0-4 @ 1.37% 1-4 @ 1.33% Other @ 2.1% Total : 45.65%