Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Reading win with a probability of 43.76%. A draw had a probability of 28.5% and a win for Derby County had a probability of 27.77%.

The most likely scoreline for a Reading win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.76%) and 2-1 (8.33%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.09%), while for a Derby County win it was 0-1 (10.29%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Reading would win this match.

Result
Reading	Draw	Derby County
43.76%	28.46%	27.77%

Both teams to score 44.18%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

38.36%

61.64%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

18.53%

81.47%

Reading Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

71.97%

28.03%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

36.32%

63.68%

Derby County Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

61.38%

38.62%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

24.64%

75.36%

Score Analysis

Reading 43.76%

Derby County 27.77%

Draw 28.45%

Reading	Draw	Derby County
1-0 @ 13.76% 2-0 @ 8.76% 2-1 @ 8.33% 3-0 @ 3.71% 3-1 @ 3.53% 3-2 @ 1.68% 4-0 @ 1.18% 4-1 @ 1.12% Other @ 1.68% Total : 43.76%	1-1 @ 13.09% 0-0 @ 10.82% 2-2 @ 3.96% Other @ 0.58% Total : 28.45%	0-1 @ 10.29% 1-2 @ 6.23% 0-2 @ 4.9% 1-3 @ 1.98% 0-3 @ 1.55% 2-3 @ 1.26% Other @ 1.56% Total : 27.77%