SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Beijing Guoan win with a probability of 55.63%. A draw had a probability of 23.6% and a win for Changchun Yatai had a probability of 20.81%.
The most likely scoreline for a Beijing Guoan win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.09%) and 1-2 (9.78%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.2%), while for a Changchun Yatai win it was 1-0 (6.42%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 1.5% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Changchun Yatai | Draw | Beijing Guoan |
20.81% ( 0.2) | 23.56% ( -0.12) | 55.63% ( -0.08) |
| Both teams to score 51.2% ( 0.63) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 50.96% ( 0.7) | 49.03% ( -0.7) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 28.89% ( 0.63) | 71.11% ( -0.63) |
| Changchun Yatai Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 62.04% ( 0.6) | 37.96% ( -0.6) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 25.27% ( 0.57) | 74.73% ( -0.58) |
| Beijing Guoan Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.53% ( 0.22) | 17.47% ( -0.23) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 52.05% ( 0.39) | 47.94% ( -0.39) |
| Score Analysis |
| Changchun Yatai | Draw | Beijing Guoan |
| 1-0 @ 6.42% ( -0.08) 2-1 @ 5.43% ( 0.06)2-0 @ 3.11% ( 0.01)3-1 @ 1.75% ( 0.05)3-2 @ 1.53% ( 0.05)3-0 @ 1% ( 0.02)Other @ 1.56% Total : 20.81% | 1-1 @ 11.2% ( -0.06) 0-0 @ 6.63% ( -0.19)2-2 @ 4.74% ( 0.09)Other @ 0.99% Total : 23.55% | 0-1 @ 11.56% ( -0.25) 0-2 @ 10.09% ( -0.14)1-2 @ 9.78% ( 0.02)0-3 @ 5.87% ( -0.04)1-3 @ 5.69% ( 0.06)2-3 @ 2.75% ( 0.07)0-4 @ 2.56% ( 0)1-4 @ 2.48% ( 0.04)2-4 @ 1.2% ( 0.04)Other @ 3.64% Total : 55.61% |
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