Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Wuhan Three Towns win with a probability of 64.81%. A draw had a probability of 20.5% and a win for Beijing Guoan had a probability of 14.64%.
The most likely scoreline for a Wuhan Three Towns win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.78%) and 2-1 (9.79%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.77%), while for a Beijing Guoan win it was 0-1 (4.88%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 1.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Wuhan Three Towns would win this match.
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