SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Wuhan Three Towns win with a probability of 40.81%. A win for Beijing Guoan had a probability of 35.27% and a draw had a probability of 23.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Wuhan Three Towns win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.4%) and 0-2 (5.92%). The likeliest Beijing Guoan win was 2-1 (8.03%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.9%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.
| Result | ||
| Beijing Guoan | Draw | Wuhan Three Towns |
35.27% ( -0.14) | 23.91% ( -0.04) | 40.81% ( 0.18) |
| Both teams to score 61.53% ( 0.12) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 59.32% ( 0.16) | 40.68% ( -0.17) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 36.94% ( 0.17) | 63.06% ( -0.17) |
| Beijing Guoan Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.08% ( 0) | 22.92% ( -0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 43.32% ( 0.01) | 56.68% ( -0.01) |
| Wuhan Three Towns Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.83% ( 0.15) | 20.17% ( -0.15) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 47.53% ( 0.24) | 52.46% ( -0.24) |
| Score Analysis |
| Beijing Guoan | Draw | Wuhan Three Towns |
| 2-1 @ 8.03% ( -0.02) 1-0 @ 6.81% ( -0.05)2-0 @ 5.02% ( -0.04)3-1 @ 3.95% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 3.16% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 2.46% ( -0.02)4-1 @ 1.45% ( -0)4-2 @ 1.16% ( 0)4-0 @ 0.91% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.32% Total : 35.27% | 1-1 @ 10.9% ( -0.03) 2-2 @ 6.43% ( 0.01)0-0 @ 4.62% ( -0.04)3-3 @ 1.69% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.27% Total : 23.91% | 1-2 @ 8.73% ( 0.02) 0-1 @ 7.4% ( -0.02)0-2 @ 5.92% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 4.66% ( 0.03)2-3 @ 3.43% ( 0.02)0-3 @ 3.16% ( 0.02)1-4 @ 1.86% ( 0.02)2-4 @ 1.37% ( 0.01)0-4 @ 1.27% ( 0.01)Other @ 3.01% Total : 40.81% |
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