SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Qingdao Hainiu win with a probability of 43.44%. A win for Changchun Yatai had a probability of 29.62% and a draw had a probability of 26.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Qingdao Hainiu win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.75%) and 0-2 (8.08%). The likeliest Changchun Yatai win was 1-0 (9.29%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.75%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 0.1% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Changchun Yatai | Draw | Qingdao Hainiu |
29.62% ( 0.62) | 26.93% ( 0.08) | 43.44% ( -0.7) |
| Both teams to score 49.4% ( 0.1) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 44.5% ( -0.03) | 55.5% ( 0.02) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 23.32% ( -0.02) | 76.68% ( 0.02) |
| Changchun Yatai Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 66.17% ( 0.46) | 33.83% ( -0.46) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 29.5% ( 0.49) | 70.49% ( -0.5) |
| Qingdao Hainiu Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.66% ( -0.36) | 25.34% ( 0.36) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 39.87% ( -0.5) | 60.13% ( 0.5) |
| Score Analysis |
| Changchun Yatai | Draw | Qingdao Hainiu |
| 1-0 @ 9.29% ( 0.12) 2-1 @ 6.91% ( 0.11)2-0 @ 5.04% ( 0.13)3-1 @ 2.5% ( 0.07)3-0 @ 1.82% ( 0.07)3-2 @ 1.71% ( 0.03)Other @ 2.35% Total : 29.62% | 1-1 @ 12.75% ( 0.04) 0-0 @ 8.57% ( 0.01)2-2 @ 4.74% ( 0.02)Other @ 0.86% Total : 26.93% | 0-1 @ 11.76% ( -0.12) 1-2 @ 8.75% ( -0.07)0-2 @ 8.08% ( -0.16)1-3 @ 4.01% ( -0.07)0-3 @ 3.7% ( -0.11)2-3 @ 2.17% ( -0.01)1-4 @ 1.38% ( -0.04)0-4 @ 1.27% ( -0.05)Other @ 2.33% Total : 43.44% |
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