Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City win with a probability of 74.1%. A draw had a probability of 15.3% and a win for Fluminense had a probability of 10.62%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.13%) and 3-0 (8.81%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.94%), while for a Fluminense win it was 1-2 (3.15%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 5.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Manchester City would win this match.
