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Premier League | Gameweek 15
Dec 6, 2023 at 8.15pm UK
Villa Park
MC
Aston Villa
1 - 0
Man City
Bailey (74')
Watkins (60'), Kamara (87')
FT(HT: 0-0)

Stones (45'), Lewis (53')

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Man City 3-3 Spurs
Sunday, December 3 at 4.30pm in Premier League

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City win with a probability of 44.42%. A win for Aston Villa had a probability of 31.47% and a draw had a probability of 24.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.33%) and 0-2 (6.81%). The likeliest Aston Villa win was 2-1 (7.5%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.17%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 6.8% likelihood.

Result
Aston VillaDrawManchester City
31.47% (0.048999999999999 0.05) 24.11% (0.0030000000000001 0) 44.42% (-0.050000000000004 -0.05)
Both teams to score 59.49% (0.009999999999998 0.01)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
57.19% (0.0039999999999978 0)42.8% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
34.79% (0.0030000000000001 0)65.21% (-0.0020000000000095 -0)
Aston Villa Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
73.87% (0.031000000000006 0.03)26.13% (-0.030999999999999 -0.03)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
38.8% (0.042000000000002 0.04)61.2% (-0.041000000000004 -0.04)
Manchester City Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
80.53% (-0.019000000000005 -0.02)19.47% (0.02 0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
48.67% (-0.033000000000001 -0.03)51.32% (0.033999999999999 0.03)
Score Analysis
    Aston Villa 31.47%
    Manchester City 44.42%
    Draw 24.11%
Aston VillaDrawManchester City
2-1 @ 7.5% (0.008 0.01)
1-0 @ 6.83% (0.0049999999999999 0)
2-0 @ 4.58% (0.0070000000000006 0.01)
3-1 @ 3.35% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
3-2 @ 2.74% (0.0030000000000001 0)
3-0 @ 2.05% (0.0049999999999999 0)
4-1 @ 1.13% (0.0029999999999999 0)
4-2 @ 0.92% (0.002 0)
Other @ 2.37%
Total : 31.47%
1-1 @ 11.17%
2-2 @ 6.13% (0.0020000000000007 0)
0-0 @ 5.09% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
3-3 @ 1.5% (0.0010000000000001 0)
Other @ 0.22%
Total : 24.11%
1-2 @ 9.14% (-0.0050000000000008 -0.01)
0-1 @ 8.33% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
0-2 @ 6.81% (-0.0089999999999995 -0.01)
1-3 @ 4.99% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
0-3 @ 3.72% (-0.0069999999999997 -0.01)
2-3 @ 3.35% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
1-4 @ 2.04% (-0.004 -0)
0-4 @ 1.52% (-0.004 -0)
2-4 @ 1.37% (-0.0010000000000001 -0)
Other @ 3.16%
Total : 44.42%

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Form Guide
Last Game: Bournemouth 2-2 Aston Villa
Sunday, December 3 at 2pm in Premier League
Last Game: Aston Villa 2-1 Legia
Thursday, November 30 at 8pm in Europa Conference League
Last Game: Spurs 1-2 Aston Villa
Sunday, November 26 at 2pm in Premier League
Last Game: Aston Villa 3-1 Fulham
Sunday, November 12 at 2pm in Premier League
Last Game: Aston Villa 2-1 AZ
Thursday, November 9 at 8pm in Europa Conference League
Last Game: Nott'm Forest 2-0 Aston Villa
Sunday, November 5 at 2pm in Premier League
Last Game: Man City 3-3 Spurs
Sunday, December 3 at 4.30pm in Premier League
Last Game: Man City 3-2 RB Leipzig
Tuesday, November 28 at 8pm in Champions League
Last Game: Man City 1-1 Liverpool
Saturday, November 25 at 12.30pm in Premier League
Last Game: Chelsea 4-4 Man City
Sunday, November 12 at 4.30pm in Premier League
Last Game: Man City 3-0 Young Boys
Tuesday, November 7 at 8pm in Champions League
Last Game: Man City 6-1 Bournemouth
Saturday, November 4 at 3pm in Premier League

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