SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City win with a probability of 44.42%. A win for Aston Villa had a probability of 31.47% and a draw had a probability of 24.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.33%) and 0-2 (6.81%). The likeliest Aston Villa win was 2-1 (7.5%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.17%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 6.8% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Aston Villa | Draw | Manchester City |
31.47% ( 0.05) | 24.11% ( 0) | 44.42% ( -0.05) |
| Both teams to score 59.49% ( 0.01) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 57.19% ( 0) | 42.8% ( -0) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 34.79% ( 0) | 65.21% ( -0) |
| Aston Villa Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.87% ( 0.03) | 26.13% ( -0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 38.8% ( 0.04) | 61.2% ( -0.04) |
| Manchester City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.53% ( -0.02) | 19.47% ( 0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 48.67% ( -0.03) | 51.32% ( 0.03) |
| Score Analysis |
| Aston Villa | Draw | Manchester City |
| 2-1 @ 7.5% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 6.83% ( 0)2-0 @ 4.58% ( 0.01)3-1 @ 3.35% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 2.74% ( 0)3-0 @ 2.05% ( 0)4-1 @ 1.13% ( 0)4-2 @ 0.92% ( 0)Other @ 2.37% Total : 31.47% | 1-1 @ 11.17% 2-2 @ 6.13% ( 0)0-0 @ 5.09% ( -0)3-3 @ 1.5% ( 0)Other @ 0.22% Total : 24.11% | 1-2 @ 9.14% ( -0.01) 0-1 @ 8.33% ( -0.01)0-2 @ 6.81% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 4.99% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 3.72% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 3.35% ( -0)1-4 @ 2.04% ( -0)0-4 @ 1.52% ( -0)2-4 @ 1.37% ( -0)Other @ 3.16% Total : 44.42% |
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