Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fluminense win with a probability of 64.24%. A draw had a probability of 19.9% and a win for Gremio had a probability of 15.81%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fluminense win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.96%) and 2-1 (9.91%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.39%), while for a Gremio win it was 0-1 (4.44%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 1.5% likelihood.
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