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CONCACAF Nations League | Quarter-Finals | 2nd Leg
Nov 20, 2024 at 2.30am UK
Estadio Nemesio Diez
HN

Mexico
4 - 0
Honduras

Jimenez (42'), Martin (72', 90+7' pen.), Sanchez (85')
Montes (22'), Rodriguez (27'), Jimenez (58'), Malagon (90+2')
FT(HT: 1-0)

Najar (45+2'), Rosales (54'), Castillo (90+2'), Maldonado (90+3'), Rodriguez (90+5')

Form, Standings, Stats

All competitions
CONCACAF Nations League
Last Game: Honduras 2-0 Mexico
Saturday, November 16 at 2am in CONCACAF Nations League
All competitions
CONCACAF Nations League
Last Game: Honduras 2-0 Mexico
Saturday, November 16 at 2am in CONCACAF Nations League

We said: Mexico 2-0 Honduras (Mexico advance on penalties)

Playing in Mexico always seems to be the great equaliser in favour of El Tri, and we expect Aguirre to put together a solid tactical plan, enabling his team to get back into this tie and advance. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mexico win with a probability of 45.76%. A win for Honduras had a probability of 27.61% and a draw had a probability of 26.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Mexico win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.09%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.97%) and 2-0 (8.61%). The likeliest Honduras win was 0-1 (8.86%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.6%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 1.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Mexico would win this match.

Result
MexicoDrawHonduras
45.76% (-0.075000000000003 -0.08) 26.62% (-0.02 -0.02) 27.61% (0.091000000000001 0.09)
Both teams to score 49.13% (0.112 0.11)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
44.72% (0.114 0.11)55.27% (-0.117 -0.12)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
23.5% (0.093999999999998 0.09)76.5% (-0.097000000000008 -0.1)
Mexico Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
75.9% (0.013999999999996 0.01)24.1% (-0.018000000000001 -0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
41.61% (0.021000000000001 0.02)58.39% (-0.024000000000001 -0.02)
Honduras Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
64.73% (0.13300000000001 0.13)35.27% (-0.137 -0.14)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
27.97% (0.14 0.14)72.02% (-0.14400000000001 -0.14)
Score Analysis
    Mexico 45.76%
    Honduras 27.61%
    Draw 26.62%
MexicoDrawHonduras
1-0 @ 12.09% (-0.050000000000001 -0.05)
2-1 @ 8.97% (0.00099999999999945 0)
2-0 @ 8.61% (-0.030999999999999 -0.03)
3-1 @ 4.25% (0.0019999999999998 0)
3-0 @ 4.08% (-0.013 -0.01)
3-2 @ 2.22% (0.0089999999999999 0.01)
4-1 @ 1.51% (0.002 0)
4-0 @ 1.45% (-0.004 -0)
Other @ 2.58%
Total : 45.76%
1-1 @ 12.6%
0-0 @ 8.5% (-0.039000000000001 -0.04)
2-2 @ 4.67% (0.018000000000001 0.02)
Other @ 0.85%
Total : 26.62%
0-1 @ 8.86% (-0.0070000000000014 -0.01)
1-2 @ 6.57% (0.021999999999999 0.02)
0-2 @ 4.62% (0.013999999999999 0.01)
1-3 @ 2.28% (0.016 0.02)
2-3 @ 1.62% (0.012 0.01)
0-3 @ 1.6% (0.01 0.01)
Other @ 2.06%
Total : 27.61%

Read more!
Read more!
Form Guide
Last Game: Honduras 2-0 Mexico
Saturday, November 16 at 2am in CONCACAF Nations League
Last Game: Mexico 2-0 USA
Wednesday, October 16 at 3.30am in International Friendlies
Last Game: Mexico 0-0 Canada
Wednesday, September 11 at 2am in International Friendlies
Last Game: Mexico 3-0 New Zealand
Sunday, September 8 at 2am in International Friendlies
Last Game: Mexico 0-0 Ecuador
Monday, July 1 at 1am in Copa America
Last Game: Venezuela 1-0 Mexico
Thursday, June 27 at 2am in Copa America
Last Game: Honduras 2-0 Mexico
Saturday, November 16 at 2am in CONCACAF Nations League
Last Game: Jamaica 0-0 Honduras
Tuesday, October 15 at 2am in CONCACAF Nations League
Last Game: French Guiana 2-3 Honduras
Thursday, October 10 at 8.30pm in CONCACAF Nations League
Last Game: Honduras 1-2 Jamaica
Wednesday, September 11 at 3am in CONCACAF Nations League
Last Game: Honduras 4-0 Trin. & Tob.
Saturday, September 7 at 3am in CONCACAF Nations League
Last Game: Ecuador 2-1 Honduras
Sunday, June 16 at 8.30pm in International Friendlies


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