Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cartagena win with a probability of 38.87%. A win for Villarreal had a probability of 34.59% and a draw had a probability of 26.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cartagena win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.17%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.4%) and 2-0 (6.77%). The likeliest Villarreal win was 0-1 (9.48%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.62%). The actual scoreline of 1-5 was predicted with a 0.2% likelihood.
-0.44) 
0.34) 
