Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Sociedad win with a probability of 47.08%. A draw had a probability of 26.7% and a win for Rayo Vallecano had a probability of 26.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Real Sociedad win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.07%) and 2-1 (8.99%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.59%), while for a Rayo Vallecano win it was 0-1 (8.83%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Real Sociedad would win this match.
Result | ||
Real Sociedad | Draw | Rayo Vallecano |
47.08% ( 0.18) | 26.72% ( 0.28) | 26.2% ( -0.46) |
Both teams to score 47.82% ( -1.15) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
43.53% ( -1.31) | 56.47% ( 1.32) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
22.53% ( -1.07) | 77.47% ( 1.08) |
Real Sociedad Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
76.01% ( -0.48) | 23.99% ( 0.49) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
41.76% ( -0.7) | 58.24% ( 0.7) |
Rayo Vallecano Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
62.91% ( -1.1) | 37.09% ( 1.11) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
26.12% ( -1.12) | 73.88% ( 1.12) |
Score Analysis |
Real Sociedad | Draw | Rayo Vallecano |
1-0 @ 12.7% ( 0.46) 2-0 @ 9.07% ( 0.2) 2-1 @ 8.99% ( -0.07) 3-0 @ 4.31% ( 0.04) 3-1 @ 4.28% ( -0.1) 3-2 @ 2.12% ( -0.11) 4-0 @ 1.54% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 1.53% ( -0.06) Other @ 2.54% Total : 47.07% | 1-1 @ 12.59% ( 0.08) 0-0 @ 8.9% ( 0.44) 2-2 @ 4.46% ( -0.17) Other @ 0.77% Total : 26.72% | 0-1 @ 8.83% ( 0.18) 1-2 @ 6.25% ( -0.15) 0-2 @ 4.38% ( -0.04) 1-3 @ 2.07% ( -0.11) 2-3 @ 1.47% ( -0.1) 0-3 @ 1.45% ( -0.06) Other @ 1.76% Total : 26.2% |
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