With a number of key suspensions, we are expecting Villarreal to struggle on home soil as their winless streak threatens to extend into worrying territory.
Rayo Vallecano will be buoyed after snatching a point off the champions on the weekend, so we are envisioning an away success for Los Franjirrojos.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Villarreal win with a probability of 41.14%. A win for Rayo Vallecano had a probability of 32.99% and a draw had a probability of 25.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Villarreal win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.74%) and 2-0 (7.01%). The likeliest Rayo Vallecano win was 0-1 (8.64%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.29%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.3% likelihood.
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