Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rayo Vallecano win with a probability of 38.7%. A win for Villarreal had a probability of 37.09% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rayo Vallecano win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.46%) and 0-2 (5.7%). The likeliest Villarreal win was 2-1 (8.3%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.12%).
0.03) 
-0.06) 
