Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rayo Vallecano win with a probability of 50.45%. A draw had a probability of 27.6% and a win for Unionistas had a probability of 21.94%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rayo Vallecano win was 0-1 with a probability of 15.42%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.67%) and 1-2 (8.65%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.49%), while for a Unionistas win it was 1-0 (9.03%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 1.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Rayo Vallecano would win this match.
-0.28) 
0.34) 
