This is a really tough match to call, and we are finding it difficult to separate them. There has not actually been a league draw between these two sides since January 2021, with each of the last six top-flight meetings producing a winner, but we have a feeling that the points will be shared on Monday night.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Sociedad win with a probability of 43.3%. A win for Villarreal had a probability of 30.65% and a draw had a probability of 26%.
The most likely scoreline for a Real Sociedad win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.92%) and 2-0 (7.63%). The likeliest Villarreal win was 0-1 (8.6%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.38%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Real Sociedad in this match.
0.14) 
-0.31) 
