Alaves showed positives against Real Valladolid last time out, but their defensive record is concerning, and Rayo have the players to hurt the visitors on Saturday; we are expecting an open and entertaining match, with Rayo likely to come out on top.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rayo Vallecano win with a probability of 47.4%. A draw had a probability of 28.3% and a win for Alaves had a probability of 24.25%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rayo Vallecano win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.89%) and 2-1 (8.44%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.83%), while for an Alaves win it was 0-1 (9.76%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 15% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Rayo Vallecano in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Rayo Vallecano.
0.15) 
-0.17) 
