Rayo are better than what they have shown in recent weeks, and the hosts will certainly be the fresher of the two sides heading into Sunday's contest. Athletic are in strong form at the moment, though, and we are expecting the Lions to navigate their way to what would be an important victory at this stage of the campaign.
Read more.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Athletic Bilbao win with a probability of 39.27%. A win for Rayo Vallecano had a probability of 32.49% and a draw had a probability of 28.2%.
The most likely scoreline for an Athletic Bilbao win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.17%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.06%) and 0-2 (7.44%). The likeliest Rayo Vallecano win was 1-0 (10.8%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.2%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Athletic Bilbao in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Athletic Bilbao.
0.4) 
-0.04) 
