SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Madrid win with a probability of 46.09%. A win for Villarreal had a probability of 30.43% and a draw had a probability of 23.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Real Madrid win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.84%) and 0-2 (6.77%). The likeliest Villarreal win was 2-1 (7.3%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.7%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 3.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Real Madrid would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Villarreal | Draw | Real Madrid |
30.43% ( 0.1) | 23.47% ( -0.23) | 46.09% ( 0.13) |
| Both teams to score 61.22% ( 0.88) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 59.71% ( 1.13) | 40.29% ( -1.13) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 37.34% ( 1.15) | 62.66% ( -1.15) |
| Villarreal Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.45% ( 0.62) | 25.54% ( -0.62) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 39.59% ( 0.84) | 60.41% ( -0.84) |
| Real Madrid Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.22% ( 0.49) | 17.77% ( -0.49) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 51.52% ( 0.84) | 48.48% ( -0.84) |
| Score Analysis |
| Villarreal | Draw | Real Madrid |
| 2-1 @ 7.3% ( 0) 1-0 @ 6.2% ( -0.21)2-0 @ 4.23% ( -0.07)3-1 @ 3.32% ( 0.06)3-2 @ 2.87% ( 0.1)3-0 @ 1.92% ( 0)4-1 @ 1.13% ( 0.04)4-2 @ 0.98% ( 0.05)Other @ 2.47% Total : 30.43% | 1-1 @ 10.7% ( -0.19) 2-2 @ 6.31% ( 0.1)0-0 @ 4.54% ( -0.24)3-3 @ 1.65% ( 0.08)Other @ 0.27% Total : 23.47% | 1-2 @ 9.25% ( -0.02) 0-1 @ 7.84% ( -0.28)0-2 @ 6.77% ( -0.13)1-3 @ 5.32% ( 0.08)0-3 @ 3.9% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 3.63% ( 0.11)1-4 @ 2.3% ( 0.07)0-4 @ 1.69% ( 0.02)2-4 @ 1.57% ( 0.07)Other @ 3.82% Total : 46.09% |
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