Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Madrid win with a probability of 46.21%. A win for Villarreal had a probability of 28.97% and a draw had a probability of 24.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Real Madrid win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.3%) and 0-2 (7.73%). The likeliest Villarreal win was 1-0 (7.41%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.73%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.7% likelihood.
