Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Madrid win with a probability of 49.72%. A win for Villarreal had a probability of 26.36% and a draw had a probability of 23.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Real Madrid win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.54%) and 0-2 (8.14%). The likeliest Villarreal win was 2-1 (6.62%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.23%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 6.6% likelihood.