With Flamengo's injury and illness issues, Atletico Mineiro appear to be a more settled and confident unit at this stage of the season.
As such, we expect the reigning Serie A and Copa do Brasil champions to avoid defeat, with their chances of retaining both competitions consequently remaining alive.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Flamengo win with a probability of 45.49%. A win for Atletico Mineiro had a probability of 28.67% and a draw had a probability of 25.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Flamengo win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.12%) and 2-0 (8.12%). The likeliest Atletico Mineiro win was 0-1 (8.27%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.28%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 8.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Flamengo would win this match.
0.34) 
-0.47) 
