The top priority for Fogo at the moment is probably maintaining their narrow advantage atop the domestic table, so we do not expect as much urgency from them in this contest.
On the other hand, Bahia have fallen out of the Serie A title race, so we believe they will be the hungrier side on Wednesday, keen to move a step closer to winning a trophy in 2024.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bahia win with a probability of 48.88%. A draw had a probability of 26.8% and a win for Botafogo had a probability of 24.32%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bahia win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.53%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.71%) and 2-1 (8.99%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.53%), while for a Botafogo win it was 0-1 (8.74%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 13.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Bahia in this match.
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