Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Botafogo win with a probability of 48.73%. A win for Bahia had a probability of 26.13% and a draw had a probability of 25.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Botafogo win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.42%) and 2-0 (8.69%). The likeliest Bahia win was 0-1 (7.59%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.95%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 12% likelihood.
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