While Fluminense's 15 goals scored this season remains the second-worst tally in the division, they have improved significantly in defence since the arrival of Thiago Silva and we feel they will be able to notch up another narrow victory in this one.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fluminense win with a probability of 44.83%. A win for Bahia had a probability of 30.24% and a draw had a probability of 24.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fluminense win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.18%) and 2-0 (7.42%). The likeliest Bahia win was 0-1 (7.55%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.77%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Fluminense in this match.
-0.12) 
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