In truth, there was little to split these two teams in the league meeting at Bahia's ground at the weekend, and we can envisage Gremio being more content to settle for a draw given that they will still have the second leg to come at Arena do Gremio next week.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bahia win with a probability of 39.87%. A win for Gremio had a probability of 33.56% and a draw had a probability of 26.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bahia win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.51%) and 2-0 (7.01%). The likeliest Gremio win was 0-1 (9.38%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.63%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-1 draw for this match.
0.02) 
-0.01) 
