In truth, there was little to split these two teams in the league meeting at Bahia's ground at the weekend, and we can envisage Gremio being more content to settle for a draw given that they will still have the second leg to come at Arena do Gremio next week. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bahia win with a probability of 39.87%. A win for Gremio had a probability of 33.56% and a draw had a probability of 26.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bahia win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.51%) and 2-0 (7.01%). The likeliest Gremio win was 0-1 (9.38%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.63%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-1 draw for this match.

Result
Bahia	Draw	Gremio
39.87% ( 0.02)	26.56% ( -0.01)	33.56% ( -0.01)

Both teams to score 51.98% (

0.02)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

47.12% (

0.02)

52.88% (

-0.02)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

25.51% (

0.02)

74.49% (

-0.02)

Bahia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

73.98% (

0.02)

26.02% (

-0.02)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

38.95% (

0.02)

61.05% (

-0.02)

Gremio Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

70.26% (

29.74% (

-0)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

34.19% (

65.81% (

-0)

Score Analysis

Bahia 39.86%

Gremio 33.56%

Draw 26.56%

Bahia	Draw	Gremio
1-0 @ 10.41% ( -0.01) 2-1 @ 8.51% ( 0) 2-0 @ 7.01% ( 0) 3-1 @ 3.82% ( 0) 3-0 @ 3.15% ( 0) 3-2 @ 2.31% ( 0) 4-1 @ 1.29% ( 0) 4-0 @ 1.06% ( 0) Other @ 2.31% Total : 39.86%	1-1 @ 12.63% 0-0 @ 7.74% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 5.16% ( 0) 3-3 @ 0.94% Other @ 0.1% Total : 26.56%	0-1 @ 9.38% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 7.66% ( -0) 0-2 @ 5.69% ( -0) 1-3 @ 3.1% 0-3 @ 2.3% ( -0) 2-3 @ 2.08% ( 0) 1-4 @ 0.94% ( 0) Other @ 2.41% Total : 33.56%