Bahia have drawn two of their last three home league games, and we think that they will settle for a point when they face a Gremio side who have lost just one of their previous seven Brasileiro matches.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bahia win with a probability of 42.74%. A win for Gremio had a probability of 30.49% and a draw had a probability of 26.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bahia win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.36%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.74%) and 2-0 (7.82%). The likeliest Gremio win was 0-1 (9.24%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.7%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.1% likelihood.
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