Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Flamengo win with a probability of 60.03%. A draw had a probability of 22.6% and a win for Athletico Paranaense had a probability of 17.37%.
The most likely scoreline for a Flamengo win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.33%) and 2-1 (9.77%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.73%), while for an Athletico Paranaense win it was 0-1 (5.9%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Flamengo would win this match.