Atletico Mineiro suffered an unexpected defeat in the Copa Libertadores last week and will be looking to bounce back with another commanding performance here. Despite giving it their all in the first leg, Sport were no match for the Serie A powerhouse, and we feel they will struggle to keep up in this one as well.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Mineiro win with a probability of 40.19%. A win for Sport Recife had a probability of 33.08% and a draw had a probability of 26.7%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Mineiro win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.67%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.51%) and 0-2 (7.15%). The likeliest Sport Recife win was 1-0 (9.48%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.7%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.5% likelihood.
0.26) 
-0.33) 
