Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Mineiro win with a probability of 47.23%. A draw had a probability of 27.4% and a win for Penarol had a probability of 25.37%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Mineiro win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.44%) and 1-2 (8.78%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.74%), while for a Penarol win it was 1-0 (9.25%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 4.3% likelihood.
0.02) 
-0.01) 
