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Copa Libertadores | Group Stage
Apr 24, 2024 at 1am UK
Estadio Raimundo Sampaio
P

Atletico Mineiro
3 - 2
Penarol

Scarpa (15', 57'), Paulinho (26')
Saravia (40'), Otavio (71'), Franco (81'), Jemerson (80')
FT(HT: 2-0)
Olivera (60'), Silvera (68')
Darias (41'), Olivera (82'), Ramirez (90+3')
Coverage of the Copa Libertadores Group Stage clash between Atletico Mineiro and Penarol.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Boston River 1-3 Penarol
Saturday, April 20 at 7pm in Uruguayan Primera Division

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Mineiro win with a probability of 63.88%. A draw had a probability of 20.6% and a win for Penarol had a probability of 15.53%.

The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Mineiro win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.22%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.11%) and 2-1 (9.88%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.78%), while for a Penarol win it was 0-1 (4.84%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Atletico Mineiro would win this match.

Result
Atletico MineiroDrawPenarol
63.88% (0.19 0.19) 20.59% (-0.093 -0.09) 15.53% (-0.095000000000001 -0.1)
Both teams to score 50.76% (0.090000000000003 0.09)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
55.41% (0.232 0.23)44.59% (-0.231 -0.23)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
33.04% (0.225 0.23)66.96% (-0.223 -0.22)
Atletico Mineiro Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
86.73% (0.13 0.13)13.27% (-0.128 -0.13)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
59.94% (0.26000000000001 0.26)40.06% (-0.258 -0.26)
Penarol Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
58.53% (0.017000000000003 0.02)41.47% (-0.014999999999993 -0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
22.03% (0.010999999999999 0.01)77.97% (-0.0099999999999909 -0.01)
Score Analysis
    Atletico Mineiro 63.87%
    Penarol 15.53%
    Draw 20.59%
Atletico MineiroDrawPenarol
2-0 @ 11.22%
1-0 @ 11.11% (-0.06 -0.06)
2-1 @ 9.88%
3-0 @ 7.56% (0.033 0.03)
3-1 @ 6.65% (0.032 0.03)
4-0 @ 3.82% (0.034 0.03)
4-1 @ 3.36% (0.032 0.03)
3-2 @ 2.93% (0.016 0.02)
5-0 @ 1.54% (0.022 0.02)
4-2 @ 1.48% (0.014 0.01)
5-1 @ 1.36% (0.019 0.02)
Other @ 2.97%
Total : 63.87%
1-1 @ 9.78% (-0.045999999999999 -0.05)
0-0 @ 5.5% (-0.055 -0.05)
2-2 @ 4.35% (0.0019999999999998 0)
Other @ 0.96%
Total : 20.59%
0-1 @ 4.84% (-0.046 -0.05)
1-2 @ 4.31% (-0.019 -0.02)
0-2 @ 2.13% (-0.02 -0.02)
2-3 @ 1.28% (0.0010000000000001 0)
1-3 @ 1.26% (-0.0050000000000001 -0.01)
Other @ 1.71%
Total : 15.53%

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Form Guide
Last Game: Atletico Mineiro 3-0 Cruzeiro
Sunday, April 21 at 1am in Brasileiro
Last Game: Atletico Mineiro 1-1 Criciuma
Thursday, April 18 at 12am in Brasileiro
Last Game: Corinthians 0-0 Atletico Mineiro
Sunday, April 14 at 8pm in Brasileiro
Last Game: Atletico Mineiro 2-1 Rosario
Wednesday, April 10 at 11pm in Copa Libertadores
Last Game: Caracas 1-4 Atletico Mineiro
Thursday, April 4 at 11pm in Copa Libertadores
Last Game: Bahia 4-1 Atletico Mineiro
Thursday, December 7 at 12.30am in Brasileiro
Last Game: Boston River 1-3 Penarol
Saturday, April 20 at 7pm in Uruguayan Primera Division
Last Game: Penarol 2-0 Danubio
Sunday, April 14 at 10pm in Uruguayan Primera Division
Last Game: Penarol 5-0 Caracas
Thursday, April 11 at 1am in Copa Libertadores
Last Game: Maldonado 1-2 Penarol
Sunday, April 7 at 10pm in Uruguayan Primera Division
Last Game: Rosario 1-0 Penarol
Thursday, April 4 at 11pm in Copa Libertadores
Last Game: Penarol 0-0 Nacional
Friday, March 29 at 7pm in Uruguayan Primera Division


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