Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cuiaba win with a probability of 41.55%. A win for Atletico Mineiro had a probability of 30.99% and a draw had a probability of 27.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cuiaba win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.48%) and 2-0 (7.78%). The likeliest Atletico Mineiro win was 0-1 (9.9%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.95%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 2% likelihood.
-0.07) 
0.04) 
