Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Colo-Colo win with a probability of 38.27%. A win for Alianza Lima had a probability of 37.09% and a draw had a probability of 24.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Colo-Colo win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.47%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.9%) and 0-2 (5.84%). The likeliest Alianza Lima win was 2-1 (8.32%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.46%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.5% likelihood.
