Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fortaleza win with a probability of 52.39%. A win for Alianza Lima had a probability of 25.31% and a draw had a probability of 22.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fortaleza win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.96%) and 2-0 (7.6%). The likeliest Alianza Lima win was 1-2 (6.4%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.09%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Fortaleza in this match.
