With a place in the final 16 on the line, we predict a tight and cagey affair in Brazil that could go either way. However, Athletico Paranaense have the stronger squad on paper, and with home advantage, they should have enough to just get over the line. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Athletico Paranaense win with a probability of 58.46%. A draw had a probability of 23.8% and a win for Caracas had a probability of 17.78%.

The most likely scoreline for an Athletico Paranaense win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.64%) and 2-1 (9.54%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.18%), while for a Caracas win it was 0-1 (6.56%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 0.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Athletico Paranaense would win this match.

Result
Athletico Paranaense	Draw	Caracas
58.46% ( -0.03)	23.76% ( -0.18)	17.78% ( 0.22)

Both teams to score 45.76% (

0.87)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

46.26% (

0.96)

53.74% (

-0.96)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

24.78% (

0.81)

75.22% (

-0.81)

Athletico Paranaense Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

81.84% (

0.35)

18.16% (

-0.35)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

50.86% (

0.59)

49.14% (

-0.59)

Caracas Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

55.91% (

0.83)

44.08% (

-0.83)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

19.81% (

0.67)

80.19% (

-0.67)

Score Analysis

Athletico Paranaense 58.44%

Caracas 17.78%

Draw 23.76%

Athletico Paranaense	Draw	Caracas
1-0 @ 13.65% ( -0.37) 2-0 @ 11.64% ( -0.18) 2-1 @ 9.54% ( 0.07) 3-0 @ 6.62% ( -0.03) 3-1 @ 5.43% ( 0.1) 4-0 @ 2.83% ( 0.02) 4-1 @ 2.31% ( 0.07) 3-2 @ 2.22% ( 0.09) 5-0 @ 0.96% ( 0.02) 4-2 @ 0.95% ( 0.05) Other @ 2.29% Total : 58.44%	1-1 @ 11.18% ( -0.04) 0-0 @ 8.01% ( -0.31) 2-2 @ 3.91% ( 0.12) Other @ 0.66% Total : 23.76%	0-1 @ 6.56% ( -0.1) 1-2 @ 4.58% ( 0.09) 0-2 @ 2.69% ( 0.02) 1-3 @ 1.25% ( 0.05) 2-3 @ 1.07% ( 0.06) Other @ 1.63% Total : 17.78%