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CL
Copa Libertadores | Group Stage
May 26, 2022 at 11pm UK
Estadio Dr. Nicolas Leoz

Libertad
4 - 1
The Strongest

Melgarejo (25'), Mendieta (55' pen., 90'), Jusino (71' og.)
Merlini (33'), Barboza (76'), Caballero (81'), Gomez (90+3')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Ursino (41')
Aponte (35'), Saucedo (50'), Benegas (55'), Triverio (56')
Aponte (66')

Form, Standings, Stats

:no data 356|l|156:DIVision:.!d!.:Sport:1:
Last Game: Libertad 4-1 The Strongest
Thursday, May 26 at 11pm in Copa Libertadores
Next Game: Athletico PR vs. Libertad
Wednesday, June 29 at 1.30am in Copa Libertadores
:no data 356|l|156:DIVision:.!d!.:Sport:1:
:no data 356|l|156:DIVision:.!d!.:Sport:1:
Last Game: Libertad 4-1 The Strongest
Thursday, May 26 at 11pm in Copa Libertadores
Next Game: The Strongest vs. Ceara
Wednesday, June 29 at 11.15pm in Copa Sudamericana
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We said: Club Libertad 2-1 The Strongest

The Strongest's thrashing of Athletico Paranaense earlier in the group stage certainly makes us think that they could stage another surprise result, but we ultimately expect them to fall just short. Libertad have a strong squad and will be confident of winning to progress, particularly with home advantage. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Club Libertad win with a probability of 50.26%. A draw had a probability of 25.6% and a win for The Strongest had a probability of 24.16%.

The most likely scoreline for a Club Libertad win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.31%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.5%) and 2-1 (9.36%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.13%), while for a The Strongest win it was 0-1 (7.86%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Club Libertad would win this match.

Result
Club LibertadDrawThe Strongest
50.26% (-0.052999999999997 -0.05) 25.58% (0.012999999999998 0.01) 24.16% (0.044 0.04)
Both teams to score 49.26% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
46.33% (-0.012999999999998 -0.01)53.67% (0.017000000000003 0.02)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
24.83% (-0.010999999999999 -0.01)75.16% (0.013999999999996 0.01)
Club Libertad Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
78.62% (-0.027000000000001 -0.03)21.38% (0.030000000000001 0.03)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
45.64% (-0.043999999999997 -0.04)54.36% (0.047999999999995 0.05)
The Strongest Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
62.65% (0.030999999999999 0.03)37.35% (-0.027000000000001 -0.03)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
25.87% (0.032 0.03)74.13% (-0.027999999999992 -0.03)
Score Analysis
    Club Libertad 50.25%
    The Strongest 24.16%
    Draw 25.58%
Club LibertadDrawThe Strongest
1-0 @ 12.31% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
2-0 @ 9.5% (-0.010999999999999 -0.01)
2-1 @ 9.36% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
3-0 @ 4.89% (-0.011 -0.01)
3-1 @ 4.81% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
3-2 @ 2.37% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
4-0 @ 1.89% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
4-1 @ 1.86% (-0.004 -0)
4-2 @ 0.91% (-0.001 -0)
Other @ 2.36%
Total : 50.25%
1-1 @ 12.13% (0.010000000000002 0.01)
0-0 @ 7.98% (0.0049999999999999 0)
2-2 @ 4.61% (0.0019999999999998 0)
Other @ 0.86%
Total : 25.58%
0-1 @ 7.86% (0.011 0.01)
1-2 @ 5.98% (0.008 0.01)
0-2 @ 3.87% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)
1-3 @ 1.96% (0.0049999999999999 0)
2-3 @ 1.51% (0.002 0)
0-3 @ 1.27% (0.004 0)
Other @ 1.7%
Total : 24.16%

Read more!
Read more!
Form Guide
Last Game: Athletico PR 2-0 Libertad
Wednesday, May 18 at 11pm in Copa Libertadores
Last Game: Caracas 1-0 Libertad
Tuesday, May 3 at 11.15pm in Copa Libertadores
Last Game: Libertad 1-0 Athletico PR
Tuesday, April 26 at 11.15pm in Copa Libertadores
Last Game: Libertad 2-1 Caracas
Wednesday, April 13 at 11pm in Copa Libertadores
Last Game: The Strongest 1-1 Libertad
Friday, April 8 at 3am in Copa Libertadores
Last Game: Libertad 1-3 Bragantino
Wednesday, September 29 at 11.15pm in Copa Sudamericana
Last Game: Caracas 0-0 The Strongest
Tuesday, May 17 at 11.15pm in Copa Libertadores
Last Game: The Strongest 5-0 Athletico PR
Tuesday, May 3 at 11.15pm in Copa Libertadores
Last Game: The Strongest 1-1 Caracas
Thursday, April 28 at 3am in Copa Libertadores
Last Game: Athletico PR 1-0 The Strongest
Thursday, April 14 at 11pm in Copa Libertadores
Last Game: The Strongest 1-1 Libertad
Friday, April 8 at 3am in Copa Libertadores
Last Game: The Strongest 2-1 U. Catolica
Friday, March 18 at 12.30am in Copa Libertadores


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