The Strongest's thrashing of Athletico Paranaense earlier in the group stage certainly makes us think that they could stage another surprise result, but we ultimately expect them to fall just short.
Libertad have a strong squad and will be confident of winning to progress, particularly with home advantage.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Club Libertad win with a probability of 50.26%. A draw had a probability of 25.6% and a win for The Strongest had a probability of 24.16%.
The most likely scoreline for a Club Libertad win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.31%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.5%) and 2-1 (9.36%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.13%), while for a The Strongest win it was 0-1 (7.86%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Club Libertad would win this match.
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