Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a LDU Quito win with a probability of 41.92%. A win for Velez Sarsfield had a probability of 35.56% and a draw had a probability of 22.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a LDU Quito win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.53%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (5.85%) and 2-0 (5.23%). The likeliest Velez Sarsfield win was 1-2 (7.8%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.55%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that LDU Quito would win this match.
