Melgar have had a record-breaking run in this season's Copa Sudamericana, but we think that it is likely to come to an end in Porto Alegre on Thursday.
The hosts have more individual quality and, providing that they keep their cool with 11 men on the pitch, should have too much in front of their home fans.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Internacional win with a probability of 53.44%. A draw had a probability of 26% and a win for Melgar had a probability of 20.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Internacional win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.98%) and 2-1 (9.14%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.04%), while for a Melgar win it was 0-1 (7.93%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 9.5% likelihood.
0.08) 
-0.08) 
