SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 45.31%. A draw had a probability of 28.2% and a win for Caracas had a probability of 26.47%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.01%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.15%) and 2-1 (8.47%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.98%), while for a Caracas win it was 0-1 (9.95%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 0.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Penarol would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Penarol | Draw | Caracas |
45.31% ( -0.01) | 28.21% ( 0) | 26.47% ( 0.01) |
| Both teams to score 44.02% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 38.57% ( -0) | 61.43% ( 0) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 18.69% ( -0) | 81.31% ( 0) |
| Penarol Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.89% ( -0.01) | 27.11% ( 0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 37.5% ( -0.01) | 62.5% ( 0.01) |
| Caracas Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 60.39% ( 0) | 39.6% ( -0) |
