SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 54.02%. A draw had a probability of 26.1% and a win for Deportivo Maldonado had a probability of 19.86%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 0-1 with a probability of 15.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.32%) and 1-2 (9.03%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12%), while for a Deportivo Maldonado win it was 1-0 (7.98%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Penarol would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Deportivo Maldonado | Draw | Penarol |
19.86% ( -0.13) | 26.12% ( 0.06) | 54.02% ( 0.06) |
| Both teams to score 42.75% ( -0.32) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 40.46% ( -0.33) | 59.54% ( 0.33) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 20.11% ( -0.25) | 79.89% ( 0.25) |
| Deportivo Maldonado Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 54.95% ( -0.33) | 45.05% ( 0.34) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 19.03% ( -0.27) | 80.97% ( 0.27) |
| Penarol Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.8% ( -0.11) | 22.2% ( 0.11) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 44.39% ( -0.17) | 55.61% ( 0.17) |
| Score Analysis |
| Deportivo Maldonado | Draw | Penarol |
| 1-0 @ 7.98% ( 0.02) 2-1 @ 4.79% ( -0.05)2-0 @ 3.18% ( -0.02)3-1 @ 1.27% ( -0.02)3-2 @ 0.96% ( -0.02)Other @ 1.69% Total : 19.86% | 1-1 @ 12% 0-0 @ 10% ( 0.12)2-2 @ 3.6% ( -0.05)Other @ 0.52% Total : 26.12% | 0-1 @ 15.05% ( 0.14) 0-2 @ 11.32% ( 0.06)1-2 @ 9.03% ( -0.03)0-3 @ 5.68% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 4.53% ( -0.03)0-4 @ 2.14% ( -0)2-3 @ 1.81% ( -0.03)1-4 @ 1.71% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.74% Total : 54.01% |
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