Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fluminense win with a probability of 40%. A win for LDU Quito had a probability of 34.09% and a draw had a probability of 25.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fluminense win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.67%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.62%) and 0-2 (6.77%). The likeliest LDU Quito win was 1-0 (8.79%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.3%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 8.8% likelihood.
-8.01) 
0.36) 
