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Copa Libertadores | Group Stage
May 13, 2021 at 11pm UK
Estadio José Amalfitani

Velez Sarsfield
3 - 1
LDU Quito

Almada (45'), Janson (69'), Mancuello (90+3')
Galdames (70'), Martin Lucero (72')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Zunino (78')
Julio (24'), Alcivar (76')
Piovi (87')

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Velez Sarsfield win with a probability of 43.83%. A win for LDU Quito had a probability of 31.86% and a draw had a probability of 24.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Velez Sarsfield win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.09%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.45%) and 2-0 (6.8%). The likeliest LDU Quito win was 1-2 (7.56%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.3%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Velez Sarsfield would win this match.

Result
Velez SarsfieldDrawLDU Quito
43.83%24.31%31.86%
Both teams to score 58.99%
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
56.47%43.53%
Over 3.5Under 3.5
34.07%65.93%
Velez Sarsfield Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
79.98%20.02%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
47.78%52.22%
LDU Quito Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
73.76%26.24%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
38.65%61.35%
Score Analysis
    Velez Sarsfield 43.83%
    LDU Quito 31.86%
    Draw 24.3%
Velez SarsfieldDrawLDU Quito
2-1 @ 9.09%
1-0 @ 8.45%
2-0 @ 6.8%
3-1 @ 4.88%
3-0 @ 3.64%
3-2 @ 3.26%
4-1 @ 1.96%
4-0 @ 1.47%
4-2 @ 1.31%
Other @ 2.98%
Total : 43.83%
1-1 @ 11.3%
2-2 @ 6.08%
0-0 @ 5.25%
3-3 @ 1.45%
Other @ 0.21%
Total : 24.3%
1-2 @ 7.56%
0-1 @ 7.03%
0-2 @ 4.7%
1-3 @ 3.37%
2-3 @ 2.71%
0-3 @ 2.1%
1-4 @ 1.13%
2-4 @ 0.91%
Other @ 2.36%
Total : 31.86%

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