Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Velez Sarsfield win with a probability of 54.07%. A win for Patronato had a probability of 23.32% and a draw had a probability of 22.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Velez Sarsfield win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.15%) and 2-0 (8.53%). The likeliest Patronato win was 1-2 (6.05%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.52%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Velez Sarsfield would win this match.
